Events from the last few weeks have been momentous.
Militants launched an attack on the Indian army base in Uri on September 18, 2016. It was perhaps successful way beyond what the militants may have expected. The Indian Army got a black eye, and India was once more being shown up as being impotent in the face of a low level insurgency.
However, this time India decided to act. The action was labelled "surgical strikes", and took place on September 29th. The scope of the strikes is hotly debated both in India and abroad. Pakistan has flatly denied that there was any significant action by Indian forces. The Indian Government has been loathe to turn over any video or other evidence of the action. All this makes for a very confused picture.
My interpretation is as follows. Indian Army did carry out strikes across the LOC but the scope of the strikes was limited. The camps/staging areas targeted were very close to the LOC. There is no better proof of the limited nature of the strikes than the fact that Indian forces appear to have suffered no casualties, and there were no mishaps and no Indian equipment left behind in POK. Remember despite all the planning and exercises that are supposed to mimic reality, there are unexpected events and it is rare that everything goes smoothly like clockwork. Even well equipped and trained special forces like those of the US have enough examples of covert actions that went wrong.
IMO, the limited nature of the strikes was deliberate. The Indian Army did not wish to embarrass the Pakistani Army and Government such that they would be forced to retaliate in kind and or raise the ante. A limited set of strikes extremely focused on hitting militant launching pads would give enough room for the Pakistani Army to deny that these happened. Unlike Kargil, there would be no/few body bags (unlike those of the NLF during the Kargil episode) going back to their families.
However, I believe that India has changed the "game", if one could call it that. After the Mumbai attacks, India marshaled its forces on the international border and threatened all out conflict. This brought international pressure on Pakistan, and some reigning in of militants bring infiltrated into India. But the respite was temporary. There was no way that Pakistan would dismantle the militant infrastructure in the Pakistani Army and society as a whole. India has chosen to publicize the point that they struck back in POK, since the militants who attacked the Uri camp had come from POK.
What India has established is a precedent for future action. It will reserve the right to strike at militant infrastructure in POK if militants carry out attacks in India. This is a radical departure from the its doctrine which always threatened escalation of conflict in the Punjab and Rajasthan, if Pakistan committed aggression in Kashmir. With Pakistan threatening the use of tactical nuclear weapons, the outcome of all out conflict has become completely unpredictable.
In the past India has resisted the temptation to strike in POK because the militant infrastructure was low value, easily recreated, and would be like playing a game of whack-a-mole. What has changed is the advent of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC is a potential game changer for the Pakistani economy and there are huge long term implications for India in an evem closer embrace between China and Pakistan.
India's reaction to CPEC has been muted, despite the fact that it passes through POK - strictly speaking an area that is disputed between India and Pakistan. With the precedent of surgical strikes established, India will have the option to strike at militant areas of operations in POK, including those along the Karakorum highway.
This raises the risks to the Karakorum highway and hence to the CPEC. It also brings China out from behind the curtain. I would not be surprised if China attempts to stabilize the situation by bringing both parties to the negotiating table.
A new game is underway, and red lines at the roof of the world have shifted.
Militants launched an attack on the Indian army base in Uri on September 18, 2016. It was perhaps successful way beyond what the militants may have expected. The Indian Army got a black eye, and India was once more being shown up as being impotent in the face of a low level insurgency.
However, this time India decided to act. The action was labelled "surgical strikes", and took place on September 29th. The scope of the strikes is hotly debated both in India and abroad. Pakistan has flatly denied that there was any significant action by Indian forces. The Indian Government has been loathe to turn over any video or other evidence of the action. All this makes for a very confused picture.
My interpretation is as follows. Indian Army did carry out strikes across the LOC but the scope of the strikes was limited. The camps/staging areas targeted were very close to the LOC. There is no better proof of the limited nature of the strikes than the fact that Indian forces appear to have suffered no casualties, and there were no mishaps and no Indian equipment left behind in POK. Remember despite all the planning and exercises that are supposed to mimic reality, there are unexpected events and it is rare that everything goes smoothly like clockwork. Even well equipped and trained special forces like those of the US have enough examples of covert actions that went wrong.
IMO, the limited nature of the strikes was deliberate. The Indian Army did not wish to embarrass the Pakistani Army and Government such that they would be forced to retaliate in kind and or raise the ante. A limited set of strikes extremely focused on hitting militant launching pads would give enough room for the Pakistani Army to deny that these happened. Unlike Kargil, there would be no/few body bags (unlike those of the NLF during the Kargil episode) going back to their families.
However, I believe that India has changed the "game", if one could call it that. After the Mumbai attacks, India marshaled its forces on the international border and threatened all out conflict. This brought international pressure on Pakistan, and some reigning in of militants bring infiltrated into India. But the respite was temporary. There was no way that Pakistan would dismantle the militant infrastructure in the Pakistani Army and society as a whole. India has chosen to publicize the point that they struck back in POK, since the militants who attacked the Uri camp had come from POK.
What India has established is a precedent for future action. It will reserve the right to strike at militant infrastructure in POK if militants carry out attacks in India. This is a radical departure from the its doctrine which always threatened escalation of conflict in the Punjab and Rajasthan, if Pakistan committed aggression in Kashmir. With Pakistan threatening the use of tactical nuclear weapons, the outcome of all out conflict has become completely unpredictable.
In the past India has resisted the temptation to strike in POK because the militant infrastructure was low value, easily recreated, and would be like playing a game of whack-a-mole. What has changed is the advent of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC is a potential game changer for the Pakistani economy and there are huge long term implications for India in an evem closer embrace between China and Pakistan.
India's reaction to CPEC has been muted, despite the fact that it passes through POK - strictly speaking an area that is disputed between India and Pakistan. With the precedent of surgical strikes established, India will have the option to strike at militant areas of operations in POK, including those along the Karakorum highway.
This raises the risks to the Karakorum highway and hence to the CPEC. It also brings China out from behind the curtain. I would not be surprised if China attempts to stabilize the situation by bringing both parties to the negotiating table.
A new game is underway, and red lines at the roof of the world have shifted.
